Current status of Vietnam stock market: Assessment and development orientation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51453/3093-3706/2026/1426Keywords:
Stock market, Market upgrading, Investors, Economic policy, VietnamAbstract
The Vietnamese stock market in the period 2020–2025 has experienced strong fluctuations due to the COVID-19 pandemic, global inflation, and shifts in monetary policy. This article investigates the key determinants of market performance and identifies barriers to its upgrade from "frontier" to "emerging" status. Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on quarterly data, the study quantitatively examines the long-run and short-run impacts of key macroeconomic variables (GDP growth, inflation, policy interest rates) on the VN-Index, complemented by a qualitative analysis of structural issues. The empirical findings reveal that in the long run, lower policy interest rates and stable GDP growth are significant positive drivers for the market. In the short run, investor sentiment and global monetary policy shifts are found to be major sources of volatility. Based on these results, the study proposes targeted solutions for 2030, emphasizing the need for a predictable monetary policy to ensure stability, urgent reforms to ease foreign ownership limits (FOL), and the development of a robust regulatory framework to enhance transparency and attract long-term capital.
Downloads
References
1. DNSE (2022). The role of the stock market in the development of the economy. https://www.dnse.com.vn/hoc/vai-tro-cua-thi-truong-chung-khoan
2. Finance Magazine (2022). Capacity of individual investors in the Vietnamese stock market: Current situation and some solutions for improvement. https://tapchitaichinh.vn/nang-luc-cua-nha-dau-tu-ca-nhan...html
3. General Statistics Office (2023). Report on socio-economic situation in 2023. https://www.gso.gov.vn
4. Government (2022). Strategy for developing the Vietnamese stock market to 2030. Issued under Decision No. 81/QD-TTg dated January 14, 2022 of the Prime Minister. https://vanban.chinhphu.vn
5. Journal of Economics and Forecast (2024). Overview of Vietnam's stock market and growth prospects. e-ISSN: 2734-9365. https://kinhtevadubao.vn/tong-quan-thi-truong-chung-khoan-viet-nam-nam-nam-2023-va-trien-vong-tang-truong-28808.html
6. Ministry of Finance (2022). Documents of the Conference on implementing the Strategy for developing the stock market to 2030. https://mof.gov.vn
7. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huyen, Luu Hoai Nam (2023). 23 years of growth and development of the Vietnamese stock market. Securities Magazine - University of Business and Technology. No. 297 - July 2023.
8. SSC – State Securities Commission (2024). Annual report of Vietnam stock market. https://ssc.gov.vn
9. State Bank of Vietnam (2023). Report on monetary policy and macroeconomic stability after COVID-19. https://sbv.gov.vn
10. Van Phong (2024). Foreign room and the problem of upgrading the market. Saigon Economic Journal. https://thesaigontimes.vn/room-ngoai-va-bai-toan-nang-hang-thi-truong/
11. VSD – Vietnam Securities Depository (2024). Report 2024. https://vsd.vn
12. World Bank (2023). Vietnam Capital Market Diagnostic. Washington, DC. https://www.worldbank.org
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
All articles published in SJTTU are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA) license. This means anyone is free to copy, transform, or redistribute articles for any lawful purpose in any medium, provided they give appropriate attribution to the original author(s) and SJTTU, link to the license, indicate if changes were made, and redistribute any derivative work under the same license.
Copyright on articles is retained by the respective author(s), without restrictions. A non-exclusive license is granted to SJTTU to publish the article and identify itself as its original publisher, along with the commercial right to include the article in a hardcopy issue for sale to libraries and individuals.
Although the conditions of the CC BY-SA license don't apply to authors (as the copyright holder of your article, you have no restrictions on your rights), by submitting to SJTTU, authors recognize the rights of readers, and must grant any third party the right to use their article to the extent provided by the license.
