Current status of Vietnam stock market: Assessment and development orientation

Tóm tắt

The Vietnamese stock market in the period 2020–2025 has experienced strong fluctuations due to the COVID-19 pandemic, global inflation, and shifts in monetary policy. This article investigates the key determinants of market performance and identifies barriers to its upgrade from "frontier" to "emerging" status. Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on quarterly data, the study quantitatively examines the long-run and short-run impacts of key macroeconomic variables (GDP growth, inflation, policy interest rates) on the VN-Index, complemented by a qualitative analysis of structural issues. The empirical findings reveal that in the long run, lower policy interest rates and stable GDP growth are significant positive drivers for the market. In the short run, investor sentiment and global monetary policy shifts are found to be major sources of volatility. Based on these results, the study proposes targeted solutions for 2030, emphasizing the need for a predictable monetary policy to ensure stability, urgent reforms to ease foreign ownership limits (FOL), and the development of a robust regulatory framework to enhance transparency and attract long-term capital.